Unemployment could still hit record highs, and even the most optimistic are charting significant job losses. With small retail decimated and construction at a standstill, workers face zero-hour contracts, reduced wages and little in the way of help.
Consumer confidence hits the floor hard, with people unable or afraid to spend. Stimulus checks go out but are spent on necessities and the amounts just aren’t enough to stimulate growth, zero percent interest rates limit the ability of central banks to input much.
Small business is hit hardest. Restaurants fail to re-open, high street stores are shuttered and the move to online and out of town is cemented, sealing the fate of the high-street, at least for now.
Chains move in to sweep up what’s left of independent business as bricks and motor stores move to Etsy.